Fermín López’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Fermín López was 0.14 goals over at home and 0.41 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 7. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.57, a difference of 0.24.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.14
away
+0.41
01
A −0.26 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.57
00.511.52
A −0.24 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Elche | W | 2 | 0.05 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | vs Athletic Club | W | 1 | 0.25 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Valencia | W | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Feyenoord Rotterdam | W | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Levante | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Sevilla | W | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Galatasaray | W | 1 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Real Betis | W | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Alavés | W | 1 | 0.05 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 67%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.