Farès Ghedjemis’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Farès Ghedjemis was 0.13 goals over at home and 0.05 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 0.20 and 0.00, a difference of 0.20.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.13
away
−0.05
00.5
A +0.18 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.20
0.00
00.51
A +0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Venezia | W | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Genoa | T | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Como | W | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Napoli | L | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs Sassuolo | W | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Atalanta | T | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Lecce | W | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Torino | W | 1 | 0.04 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 8%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.