Esteban Lepaul’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Esteban Lepaul was 0.23 goals over at home and 0.60 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.00 and 1.00, a difference of 0.00. Expected was 0.37 goals higher at home than away.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.23
away
+0.60
012
A −0.37 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
1.00
0123
A 0.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | T | 1 | 0.47 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Le Mans | W | 2 | 0.79 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Angers | W | 0 | 0.59 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Marseille | W | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Lyon | L | 0 | 0.35 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs AJ Auxerre | W | 1 | 1.03 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Paris FC | L | 3 | 0.27 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 78%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.