Erling Haaland’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Erling Haaland was 0.55 goals over at home and 0.97 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are 1.00 and 1.40, a difference of 0.40.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.55
away
+0.97
00.511.5
A −0.41 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
1.40
00.511.52
A −0.40 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Crystal Palace | W | 2 | 0.45 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 1 | 0.48 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ FC Porto | W | 2 | 0.62 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Manchester United | W | 1 | 0.43 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Sunderland | W | 1 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Liverpool | W | 1 | 0.43 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 2 | 0.43 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 2 | 0.65 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | L | 1 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 0.31 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 81%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.