Donyell Malen’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Donyell Malen was 0.29 goals over at home and 0.10 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 6. The plain averages are 1.17 and 0.67, a difference of 0.50. Both league games after a Champions League game were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.29
away
+0.10
-1012
A +0.19 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.17
0.67
0123
A +0.50 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | vs Fiorentina | W | 3 | 0.79 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Lecce | W | 2 | 0.67 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Atalanta | W | 0 | 0.47 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | @ Fenerbahce | T | 0 | 0.92 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ Torino | W | 1 | 0.30 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Internazionale | T | 0 | 0.60 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Como | T | 0 | 0.32 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | L | 2 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Slovan Bratislava | W | 1 | 2.35 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Napoli | T | 0 | 0.54 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Cagliari | W | 1 | 0.64 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Udinese | W | 1 | 0.67 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 79%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.