Corentin Tolisso’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Corentin Tolisso was 0.26 goals over at home and 0.06 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.40 and 0.00, a difference of 0.40.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.26
away
−0.06
00.5
A +0.33 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.40
0.00
00.51
A +0.40 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Toulouse | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Le Havre AC | T | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs AJ Auxerre | W | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Paris FC | T | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Stade Rennais | W | 1 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Lens | L | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Nice | W | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Angers | W | 1 | 0.16 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.