Christopher Nkunku’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Christopher Nkunku was 0.70 goals over at home and 0.24 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 5. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.00, a difference of 1.00.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.70
away
−0.24
012
A +0.95 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 18 times in 100.
plain
1.00
0.00
0123
A +1.00 difference in goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 0 | 0.40 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Werder Bremen | L | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | @ Como | L | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Hamburg SV | W | 1 | 0.46 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.60 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 3 | 0.30 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs PSV Eindhoven | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.19 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 44%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.