Bruno Fernandes’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Bruno Fernandes was 0.72 goals over at home and 0.17 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 7. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.00, a difference of 1.00. Both games vs top-half teams were away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.72
away
−0.17
012
A +0.89 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
0.00
0123
A +1.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Hull City | L | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 3 | 0.32 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Everton | T | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Sabah FK | W | 1 | 0.07 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Manchester City | L | 0 | 0.32 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Fulham | T | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | T | 0 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Leeds United | T | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Como | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Chelsea | L | 0 | 0.36 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.