Benjamin Sesko’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Benjamin Sesko was 0.01 goals under at home and 0.35 goals over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.50, a difference of 0.17. Expected was 0.19 goals higher at home than away.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.01
away
+0.35
00.5
A −0.36 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.50
00.51
A −0.17 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Hull City | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Everton | T | 1 | 0.16 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Sabah FK | W | 1 | 0.36 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Manchester City | L | 0 | 0.30 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 40%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.