Assane Diao’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Assane Diao was 0.04 goals under at home and 0.17 goals over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.60, a difference of 0.27.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.04
away
+0.17
01
A −0.21 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.60
00.511.52
A −0.27 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Udinese | T | 0 | 0.42 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Napoli | W | 0 | 0.34 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Genoa | W | 2 | 0.15 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 1 | 0.45 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs Parma | W | 0 | 0.40 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Frosinone | L | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs AS Roma | T | 0 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Feyenoord Rotterdam | L | 1 | 1.00 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.