Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Antony’s goals at home and away

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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Antony was 0.00 goals over at home and 0.00 goals over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.00, a difference of 0.00. Both games vs top-half teams were away. All 3 games vs bottom-half teams were at home.

goals a game over expected

A 0.00 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.

A 0.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.

The games

at homeaway
Antony’s games, 2026-27, each marked at home or away
SideDateGameResultgoalsExpected
Aug 21, 2026vsReal SociedadW00.00
Aug 25, 2026@ValenciaW00.00
Aug 29, 2026@LevanteL00.00
Sep 4, 2026vsReal MadridW00.00
Sep 8, 2026@LilleW00.00
Sep 14, 2026@VillarrealW00.00
Sep 17, 2026vsGetafeW00.00
Sep 20, 2026@DeportivoT00.00
Oct 11, 2026vsOsasunaW00.00
Oct 14, 2026vsFC PortoW00.00
Oct 21, 2026vsFeyenoord RotterdamW00.00
Oct 25, 2026@Celta VigoT00.00
Oct 31, 2026vsMálagaW00.00

Method

  • Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 0%.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.