Antonio Raimondo’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Antonio Raimondo was 0.55 goals over at home and 0.12 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 4. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.50, a difference of 0.50.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.55
away
+0.12
012
A +0.43 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
0.50
0123
A +0.50 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Juventus | L | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Fiorentina | W | 2 | 0.55 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Venezia | W | 2 | 0.47 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Genoa | T | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Como | W | 0 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Napoli | L | 0 | 0.43 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs Sassuolo | W | 3 | 0.82 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Atalanta | T | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Lecce | W | 1 | 0.57 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Torino | W | 0 | 0.31 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 57%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.