Anthony Lopes’ goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Anthony Lopes was 0.12 goals under at home and 0.59 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are -0.12 and 0.59, a difference of 0.71.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.12
away
+0.59
-101
A −0.71 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
plain
-0.12
0.59
-101
A −0.71 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Lille | L | -0.05 | -0.00 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ AJ Auxerre | W | 0.62 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Stade Rennais | L | 0.83 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Le Havre AC | T | 1.72 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troyes | W | 0.48 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Brest | L | 0.12 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Marseille | L | -1.85 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Lorient | T | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Lyon | L | -0.09 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.