Ante Budimir’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Ante Budimir was 0.25 goals under at home and 0.38 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.60 and 0.80, a difference of 0.20. Expected was 0.43 goals higher at home than away. All 3 games vs top-half teams were away. Both games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.25
away
+0.38
-101
A −0.63 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
plain
0.60
0.80
00.511.52
A −0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | vs Levante | T | 0 | 1.03 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | @ Celta Vigo | W | 1 | 0.33 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 1 | 0.45 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | 2 | 0.65 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Espanyol | L | 0 | 0.64 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | T | 1 | 0.99 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Real Betis | L | 1 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 1 | 1.16 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ Sevilla | L | 0 | 0.65 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 78%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.