Andrej Kramaric’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Andrej Kramaric was 0.13 goals over at home and 0.06 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.25 and 0.00, a difference of 0.25.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.13
away
−0.06
00.5
A +0.19 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.25
0.00
00.51
A +0.25 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ FC Cologne | L | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs VfB Stuttgart | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ SC Paderborn 07 | L | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Hamburg SV | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Bayer Leverkusen | W | 1 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Werder Bremen | L | 0 | 0.04 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 14%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.