Alisson Becker’s goals prevented at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Alisson Becker was 0.29 goals under at home and 0.04 goals under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.29 and -0.04, a difference of 0.25.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.29
away
−0.04
-10
A −0.25 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.29
-0.04
-10
A −0.25 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Newcastle United | T | -1 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | T | -0.41 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Ipswich Town | W | 0.87 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Atlético Madrid | W | -0.40 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Fulham | T | 0.79 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ AFC Bournemouth | W | 0.91 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Manchester City | L | -1.59 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ LASK Linz | W | -0.86 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Brentford | W | -0.10 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | -0.95 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 0.09 | 0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | 0.47 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.