Alexander Isak’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Alexander Isak was 0.05 goals over at home and 0.73 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.33 and 1.00, a difference of 0.67. Both Champions League games were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.05
away
+0.73
01
A −0.68 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
plain
0.33
1.00
00.511.52
A −0.67 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Newcastle United | T | 0 | 0.35 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | T | 1 | 0.26 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Ipswich Town | W | 2 | 0.44 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Atlético Madrid | W | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Fulham | T | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ AFC Bournemouth | W | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Brentford | W | 1 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 0 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 1 | 0.19 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.15 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 67%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.