Akor Adams’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Akor Adams was 0.22 goals under at home and 0.32 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.40 and 0.00, a difference of 0.40. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.22
away
−0.32
-0.50
A +0.10 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.40
0.00
00.51
A +0.40 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Lecce | L | 0 | 0.85 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ AC Milan | L | 0 | 0.38 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Frosinone | L | 0 | 0.26 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Fiorentina | L | 1 | 0.81 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Lazio | L | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ Atalanta | L | 0 | 0.37 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 1 | 0.56 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Genoa | L | 0 | 0.32 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Internazionale | L | 0 | 0.51 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Como | L | 0 | 0.27 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 67%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.