Abde Ezzalzouli’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Abde Ezzalzouli was 0.08 goals over at home and 0.34 goals under away in 2026-27, 6 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.67 and 0.00, a difference of 0.67. Both Champions League games were at home. All 3 games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.08
away
−0.34
-10
A +0.42 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.67
0.00
00.51
A +0.67 difference in goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Levante | L | 0 | 0.59 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ Villarreal | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 1 | 0.29 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Deportivo | T | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Osasuna | W | 1 | 0.55 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs FC Porto | W | 1 | 0.45 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Barcelona | L | 1 | 0.29 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Feyenoord Rotterdam | W | 0 | 1.49 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Celta Vigo | T | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 0 | 0.45 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.