Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Napoli @ FC Porto

Wed, Nov 4 · Champions League · Estádio do Dragão

The odds have it FC Porto 1.67, Napoli 1.07.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Napoli at FC Porto: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameNapoli13 gamesFC Porto3 games
+0.12−0.83
−0.08+0.48
+0.37−0.57
+0.20+0.37
+1.0−3.5
+2.2+3.9
−0.06−1.31

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

If you squint

  • At home, FC Porto’s goals are 1.43 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • In the Champions League, Napoli’s expected goals conceded are 0.95 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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