Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Club Brugge @ PSV Eindhoven

Wed, Nov 4 · Champions League · Philips Stadion

The odds have it PSV Eindhoven 2.14, Club Brugge 1.61.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Club Brugge at PSV Eindhoven: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameClub Brugge3 gamesPSV Eindhoven3 games
+1.46−0.97
+0.24−0.99
+0.76−0.35
+1.09+0.18
+0.9−1.6
+7.8+0.7
+0.74−0.31

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

If you squint

  • At home, PSV Eindhoven’s shots conceded are 7.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, Club Brugge’s expected goals are 1.28 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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