Wyoming’s third-down conversion rate with Samuel Harris and without Samuel Harris
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wyoming was 3.0 percentage points under with Samuel Harris and 1.1 percentage points under without Samuel Harris over its last 25 games, 15 games against 2. The plain averages are 33.0% and 37.8%, a difference of 4.8%. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with Samuel Harris. All 7 nonconference games were with Samuel Harris. Both games after a bye were with Samuel Harris.
Samuel Harris, running back: 891 rushing yards, 168 carries and 29 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
2 games without Samuel Harris is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −1.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Samuel Harris vs without Samuel Harris is about what you’d expect.
A −4.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Samuel Harris vs without Samuel Harris is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Utah State | L | 50.0% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ New Mexico | W | 60.0% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | @ Colorado State | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Boise State | L | 28.6% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Washington State | W | 33.3% | 33.5% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Akron | W | 45.0% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 25.0% | 33.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | 38.5% | 30.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 25.0% | 32.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 33.3% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Air Force | L | 50.0% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsColorado State | W | 36.4% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 37.5% | 31.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 20.0% | 36.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Nevada | L | 33.3% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 20.0% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | 0.0% | 44.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Northern Colorado | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | L | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsHawaii | W | 50.0% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 18.2% | — | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @San Jose State | W | 20.0% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 55.6% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsAir Force | W | 33.3% | 34.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Samuel Harris nor without Samuel Harris: Samuel Harris had no game for the team that season, and sit out.