Wyoming’s third-down conversion rate with Samuel Harris and without Samuel Harris
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wyoming was 6.8 percentage points under with Samuel Harris and 15.7 percentage points over without Samuel Harris in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.9% and 55.6%, a difference of 25.7%. All 4 away games were with Samuel Harris. Both night games were with Samuel Harris. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Samuel Harris.
Samuel Harris, running back: 333 rushing yards, 68 carries and 13 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Samuel Harris is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Samuel Harris
−6.8%
without Samuel Harris
+15.7%
-40%-20%0%
plain
29.9%
55.6%
0%20%40%
The games
with Samuel Harriswithout Samuel Harris
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | 0.0% | 44.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Northern Colorado | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | L | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Hawaii | W | 50.0% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 18.2% | — | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ San Jose State | W | 20.0% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 55.6% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Air Force | W | 33.3% | 34.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Colorado, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.