Wisconsin’s third-down conversion rate with Abu Sama III and without Abu Sama III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wisconsin was 4.1 percentage points under with Abu Sama III and 15.7 percentage points over without Abu Sama III over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.3% and 58.3%, a difference of 22.1%. All 3 away games were with Abu Sama III. All 3 night games were with Abu Sama III. All 4 ranked opponents were with Abu Sama III.
Abu Sama III, running back: 318 rushing yards, 57 carries and 4 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Abu Sama III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −19.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Abu Sama III vs without Abu Sama III is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Abu Sama III and it comes up 7 times in 100.
A −22.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Abu Sama III vs without Abu Sama III is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Abu Sama III and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Penn State | L | 38.9% | 34.2% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Iowa | L | 18.2% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Oregon | L | 8.3% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Nebraska | L | 30.0% | 33.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Minnesota | L | 21.4% | 37.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 50.0% | 43.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 44.4% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 54.5% | 30.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Maryland | L | 17.6% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 28.6% | 34.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsIowa | L | 38.5% | 30.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 18.2% | 29.5% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Oregon | L | 27.3% | 32.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Washington | W | 14.3% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 18.2% | 29.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 46.7% | 37.4% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Minnesota | L | 30.8% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 38.5% | 42.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 66.7% | 45.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Penn State | W | 26.7% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 50.0% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 30.0% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs USC | W | 50.0% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Iowa | L | 30.8% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Abu Sama III nor without Abu Sama III: Abu Sama III had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.