Wisconsin’s points with Bryan Jackson II and without Bryan Jackson II
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wisconsin was 1.9 points under with Bryan Jackson II and 0.8 points under without Bryan Jackson II in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 25.3 and 18.5, a difference of 6.8. All 4 home games were with Bryan Jackson II. All 4 unranked opponents were with Bryan Jackson II. All 4 second-half games were with Bryan Jackson II.
Bryan Jackson II, running back: 123 rushing yards and 34 carries in 5 games this season.
2 games without Bryan Jackson II is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −1.1 difference in points over expected with Bryan Jackson II vs without Bryan Jackson II is about what you’d expect.
A +6.8 difference in points with Bryan Jackson II vs without Bryan Jackson II is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 13 | 18.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 54 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 24 | 19.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 31 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 7 | 20.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs USC | W | 24 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa | L | 0 | 21.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.