Wisconsin’s points of margin with Bryan Jackson II and without Bryan Jackson II
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wisconsin was 3.6 points over with Bryan Jackson II and 6.8 points under without Bryan Jackson II over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 12.7 and -12.0, a difference of 24.7. All 4 home games were with Bryan Jackson II. All 4 unranked opponents were with Bryan Jackson II.
Bryan Jackson II, running back: 123 rushing yards and 34 carries in 5 of those 25 games.
2 games without Bryan Jackson II is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +10.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Bryan Jackson II vs without Bryan Jackson II is about what you’d expect.
A +24.7 difference in points of margin with Bryan Jackson II vs without Bryan Jackson II is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Penn State | L | -15 | -11.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Iowa | L | -32 | -5.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Oregon | L | -3 | -13.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Nebraska | L | -19 | -2.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Minnesota | L | -17 | -1.0 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 17 | 13.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 32 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | -24 | -15.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Maryland | L | -17 | 10.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | -14 | -12.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsIowa | L | -37 | -8.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | -34 | -19.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Oregon | L | -14 | -27.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Washington | W | 3 | -12.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | -24 | -35.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 17 | -9.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Minnesota | L | -10 | 1.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | -28 | -8.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 44 | 24.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Penn State | W | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 28 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | -10 | -6.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs USC | W | 17 | 0.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Iowa | L | -30 | 4.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Bryan Jackson II nor without Bryan Jackson II: Bryan Jackson II had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.