Wisconsin’s carries with Abu Sama III and without Abu Sama III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wisconsin was 1.3 carries under with Abu Sama III and 0.0 carries over without Abu Sama III in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 31.5 and 35.5, a difference of 4.0. All 3 away games were with Abu Sama III. All 3 night games were with Abu Sama III. All 4 ranked opponents were with Abu Sama III.
Abu Sama III, running back: 318 rushing yards, 57 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season, 30% of Wisconsin’s carries in those games.
2 games without Abu Sama III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −1.4 difference in carries over expected with Abu Sama III vs without Abu Sama III is about what you’d expect.
A −4.0 difference in carries with Abu Sama III vs without Abu Sama III is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 31 | 29.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 30 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 28 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 41 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 33 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs USC | W | 42 | 32.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa | L | 24 | 36.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.