Wisconsin’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wisconsin was 8.8 points over at home and 10.4 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 36.3 and 10.3, a difference of 25.9. Both night games were at home. Both nonconference games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+8.8
away
−10.4
-20020
A +19.2 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 18 times in 100.
plain
36.3
10.3
02040
A +25.9 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 13 | 19.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 54 | 30.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 24 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 31 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 7 | 20.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs USC | W | 24 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa | L | 0 | 21.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.