Western Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Lolo Mataele and since Lolo Mataele’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Michigan was 2.5 percentage points over with Lolo Mataele and 13.6 percentage points under since Lolo Mataele’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 42.0% and 28.6%, a difference of 13.4%. All 5 away games were with Lolo Mataele. All 3 night games were with Lolo Mataele. All 4 nonconference games were with Lolo Mataele.
Lolo Mataele, running back: 231 rushing yards, 53 carries and 7 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game since Lolo Mataele’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Lolo Mataele
+2.5%
since Lolo Mataele’s last game
−13.6%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
42.0%
28.6%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Lolo Mataelesince Lolo Mataele’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 44.4% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMonmouth | W | 44.4% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 50.0% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 18.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Buffalo | W | 45.5% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 54.5% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 53.8% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 25.0% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 28.6% | 42.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Monmouth has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.