Western Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Cole Cabana and without Cole Cabana
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Michigan was 1.3 percentage points under with Cole Cabana and 0.9 percentage points over without Cole Cabana over its last 25 games, 9 games against 12. The plain averages are 39.6% and 39.7%, a difference of 0.1%. Expected was 0.4 percentage points higher with Cole Cabana than without Cole Cabana. Both neutral-site games were without Cole Cabana. Both ranked opponents were with Cole Cabana. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Cole Cabana.
Cole Cabana, running back: 148 rushing yards, 27 carries and 7 receptions in 8 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Cole Cabana vs without Cole Cabana is about what you’d expect.
A −0.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Cole Cabana vs without Cole Cabana is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 37.5% | 38.7% | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs South Alabama (neutral) | L | 38.5% | 37.7% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 28.6% | 33.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 50.0% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 21.4% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 40.0% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsRRhode Island | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 36.4% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 57.1% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 47.1% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 38.5% | 42.1% | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 0.0% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 63.6% | 39.4% | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @Eastern Michigan | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsMiami (OH) (neutral) | W | 26.7% | 43.4% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 44.4% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMonmouth | W | 44.4% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 50.0% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 18.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Buffalo | W | 45.5% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 54.5% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Central Michigan | W | 53.8% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Toledo | L | 25.0% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 28.6% | 42.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Rhode Island, Monmouth have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 2 games in 2024 are neither with Cole Cabana nor without Cole Cabana: Cole Cabana had no game for the team that season, and sit out.