Western Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Aveion Chenault and without Aveion Chenault
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Michigan was 1.0 percentage points over with Aveion Chenault and 20.2 percentage points under without Aveion Chenault over its last 25 games, 20 games against 1. The plain averages are 40.6% and 18.2%, a difference of 22.5%. All 11 away games were with Aveion Chenault. Both neutral-site games were with Aveion Chenault. All 8 night games were with Aveion Chenault.
Aveion Chenault, receiver: 817 receiving yards, 56 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 21 of those 25 games.
One game without Aveion Chenault is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Aveion Chenault
+1.0%
without Aveion Chenault
−20.2%
-20%0%20%
plain
40.6%
18.2%
0%20%40%60%
The games
with Aveion Chenaultwithout Aveion Chenault
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 37.5% | 38.7% | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs South Alabama (neutral) | L | 38.5% | 37.7% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 28.6% | 33.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 50.0% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 21.4% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 40.0% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsRRhode Island | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 36.4% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 57.1% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 47.1% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 38.5% | 42.1% | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 0.0% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 63.6% | 39.4% | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @Eastern Michigan | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsMiami (OH) (neutral) | W | 26.7% | 43.4% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 44.4% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMonmouth | W | 44.4% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 50.0% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 18.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Buffalo | W | 45.5% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 54.5% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Central Michigan | W | 53.8% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Toledo | L | 25.0% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 28.6% | 42.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Rhode Island, Monmouth have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 2 games in 2024 are neither with Aveion Chenault nor without Aveion Chenault: Aveion Chenault had no game for the team that season, and sit out.