Western Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Aveion Chenault and without Aveion Chenault
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Michigan was 3.5 percentage points over with Aveion Chenault and 20.2 percentage points under without Aveion Chenault in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.3% and 18.2%, a difference of 25.1%. All 5 away games were with Aveion Chenault. All 3 night games were with Aveion Chenault. All 5 conference games were with Aveion Chenault.
Aveion Chenault, receiver: 540 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 8 games this season.
One game without Aveion Chenault is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Aveion Chenault
+3.5%
without Aveion Chenault
−20.2%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
43.3%
18.2%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Aveion Chenaultwithout Aveion Chenault
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 44.4% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMonmouth | W | 44.4% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 50.0% | 40.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 18.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Buffalo | W | 45.5% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 54.5% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 53.8% | 44.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 25.0% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 28.6% | 42.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Monmouth has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.