Western Michigan’s points with Cole Cabana and without Cole Cabana
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Michigan was 2.7 points under with Cole Cabana and 0.7 points over without Cole Cabana over its last 25 games, 9 games against 12. The plain averages are 25.7 and 25.1, a difference of 0.6. Expected was 0.9 points lower with Cole Cabana than without Cole Cabana. Both neutral-site games were without Cole Cabana. Both ranked opponents were with Cole Cabana. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Cole Cabana.
Cole Cabana, running back: 148 rushing yards, 27 carries and 7 receptions in 8 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
A −3.4 difference in points over expected with Cole Cabana vs without Cole Cabana is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Cole Cabana and it comes up 15 times in 100.
A +0.6 difference in points with Cole Cabana vs without Cole Cabana is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 26 | 32.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs South Alabama (neutral) | L | 23 | 26.1 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 6 | 21.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 30 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 0 | 16.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 14 | 18.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsRRhode Island | W | 47 | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 21 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 42 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 17 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 24 | 24.8 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 17 | 22.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 35 | 20.9 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @Eastern Michigan | W | 31 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsMiami (OH) (neutral) | W | 23 | 23.0 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State (neutral) | W | 41 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 12 | 15.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMonmouth | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 28 | 25.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 7 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Buffalo | W | 20 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 38 | 26.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Central Michigan | W | 21 | 22.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Toledo | L | 38 | 23.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 23 | 30.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.8 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Rhode Island, Monmouth have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 2 games in 2024 are neither with Cole Cabana nor without Cole Cabana: Cole Cabana had no game for the team that season, and sit out.