Western Michigan’s points of margin with Lolo Mataele and since Lolo Mataele’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Michigan was 1.5 points over with Lolo Mataele and 4.8 points under since Lolo Mataele’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 6.3 and 13.0, a difference of 6.8. Expected was 17.1 points lower with Lolo Mataele than since Lolo Mataele’s last game. All 5 away games were with Lolo Mataele. All 3 night games were with Lolo Mataele. All 4 nonconference games were with Lolo Mataele.
Lolo Mataele, running back: 231 rushing yards, 53 carries and 7 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game since Lolo Mataele’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Lolo Mataele
+1.5
since Lolo Mataele’s last game
−4.8
-10010
plain
6.3
13.0
-20020
The games
with Lolo Mataelesince Lolo Mataele’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | -1 | -14.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMonmouth | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 7 | 4.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | -25 | -8.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Buffalo | W | 3 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 31 | 15.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 7 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | -7 | -1.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 13 | 17.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Monmouth has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.