Western Michigan’s points of margin with Aveion Chenault and without Aveion Chenault
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Michigan was 3.2 points over with Aveion Chenault and 16.5 points under without Aveion Chenault in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 11.0 and -25.0, a difference of 36.0. All 5 away games were with Aveion Chenault. All 3 night games were with Aveion Chenault. All 5 conference games were with Aveion Chenault.
Aveion Chenault, receiver: 540 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 8 games this season.
One game without Aveion Chenault is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Aveion Chenault
+3.2
without Aveion Chenault
−16.5
-10010
plain
11.0
-25.0
-20020
The games
with Aveion Chenaultwithout Aveion Chenault
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | -1 | -14.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMonmouth | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 7 | 4.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | -25 | -8.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Buffalo | W | 3 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 31 | 15.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 7 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | -7 | -1.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 13 | 17.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Monmouth has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.