Western Michigan’s carries with Aveion Chenault and without Aveion Chenault
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Michigan was 2.3 carries over with Aveion Chenault and 9.6 carries under without Aveion Chenault in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.3 and 22.0, a difference of 16.3. All 5 away games were with Aveion Chenault. All 3 night games were with Aveion Chenault. All 5 conference games were with Aveion Chenault.
Aveion Chenault, receiver: 540 receiving yards, 33 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 8 games this season.
One game without Aveion Chenault is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Aveion Chenault
+2.3
without Aveion Chenault
−9.6
010
plain
38.3
22.0
3040
The games
with Aveion Chenaultwithout Aveion Chenault
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 45 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMonmouth | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 41 | 36.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 22 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Buffalo | W | 37 | 40.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 36 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 45 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 33 | 38.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 38 | 39.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Monmouth has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.