West Virginia’s third-down conversion rate with Scotty Fox Jr. and without Scotty Fox Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, West Virginia was 4.5 percentage points under with Scotty Fox Jr. and 0.1 percentage points under without Scotty Fox Jr. over its last 25 games, 6 games against 12. The plain averages are 28.3% and 40.5%, a difference of 12.2%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Scotty Fox Jr.. All 6 nonconference games were without Scotty Fox Jr.. Both games after a bye were with Scotty Fox Jr..
Scotty Fox Jr., quarterback: 1,303 passing yards, 174 pass attempts and 103 completions in 11 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −4.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Scotty Fox Jr. vs without Scotty Fox Jr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Scotty Fox Jr. and it comes up 7 times in 100.
A −12.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Scotty Fox Jr. vs without Scotty Fox Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Cincinnati | W | 27.3% | 42.3% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Baylor | L | 38.5% | 40.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UCF | W | 44.4% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Texas Tech | L | 53.3% | 36.1% | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | vs Memphis (neutral) | L | 46.2% | 43.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 15.4% | 36.6% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 29.4% | 31.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Kansas | L | 20.0% | 38.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 28.6% | 32.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ BYU | L | 46.7% | 27.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @UCF | L | 22.2% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs TCU | L | 21.4% | 34.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Houston | W | 29.4% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Colorado | W | 41.2% | 31.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | 40.0% | 31.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsTexas Tech | L | 15.4% | 30.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 50.0% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUUT Martin | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Virginia (neutral) | W | 46.7% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | L | 52.9% | 42.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 38.5% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Arizona | L | 47.4% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsCincinnati | W | 46.2% | 45.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @TCU | W | 33.3% | 38.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Robert Morris, UT Martin have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Scotty Fox Jr. nor without Scotty Fox Jr.: Scotty Fox Jr. had no game for the team that season, and sit out.