Washington’s third-down conversion rate with Jayden Limar and without Jayden Limar
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 0.2 percentage points under with Jayden Limar and 6.8 percentage points under without Jayden Limar over its last 25 games, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 33.3% and 34.0%, a difference of 0.7%. Expected was 3.2 percentage points lower with Jayden Limar than without Jayden Limar. Both night games were without Jayden Limar. Both ranked opponents were without Jayden Limar. All 6 games on a normal week were without Jayden Limar.
Jayden Limar, running back: 58 rushing yards, 14 carries and 1 reception in 2 of those 25 games.
2 games with Jayden Limar is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +6.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jayden Limar vs without Jayden Limar is about what you’d expect.
A −0.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jayden Limar vs without Jayden Limar is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 30.8% | 36.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs UCLA | W | 33.3% | 42.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Oregon | L | 33.3% | 33.8% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 40.0% | 33.9% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 57.1% | 50.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 84.6% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Washington State | W | 88.9% | 38.0% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 9.1% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 41.7% | 49.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 44.4% | 45.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 41.7% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 75.0% | 44.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 31.3% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 70.0% | 42.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UCLA | W | 36.4% | 51.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOregon | L | 38.5% | 42.5% | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 41.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 33.3% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 35.3% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 54.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | 10.0% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | 8.3% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 38.9% | 34.0% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 57.1% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 33.3% | 29.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jayden Limar nor without Jayden Limar: Jayden Limar had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.