Washington’s third-down conversion rate with Jayden Limar and without Jayden Limar
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 0.2 percentage points under with Jayden Limar and 6.8 percentage points under without Jayden Limar in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 33.3% and 34.0%, a difference of 0.7%. Expected was 3.2 percentage points lower with Jayden Limar than without Jayden Limar. Both night games were without Jayden Limar. Both ranked opponents were without Jayden Limar. All 6 games on a normal week were without Jayden Limar.
Jayden Limar, running back: 58 rushing yards, 14 carries and 1 reception in 2 games this season.
2 games with Jayden Limar is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +6.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jayden Limar vs without Jayden Limar is about what you’d expect.
A −0.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jayden Limar vs without Jayden Limar is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 33.3% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 35.3% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 54.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | 10.0% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | 8.3% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 38.9% | 34.0% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 57.1% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 33.3% | 29.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.