Washington’s third-down conversion rate with Demond Williams Jr. and since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 15.6 percentage points under with Demond Williams Jr. and 9.4 percentage points over since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 28.3% and 43.1%, a difference of 14.8%. Both games while ranked were with Demond Williams Jr.. All 3 nonconference games were with Demond Williams Jr.. All 4 first-half games were with Demond Williams Jr..
Demond Williams Jr., quarterback: 1,495 passing yards, 187 pass attempts and 123 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −25.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Demond Williams Jr. vs since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Demond Williams Jr. and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A −14.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Demond Williams Jr. vs since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Demond Williams Jr. and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 33.3% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 35.3% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 54.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | 10.0% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | 8.3% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 38.9% | 34.0% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 57.1% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 33.3% | 29.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.