Washington’s rushing yards with Jayden Limar and without Jayden Limar
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 38.7 yards under with Jayden Limar and 20.5 yards under without Jayden Limar over its last 25 games, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 86.0 and 99.3, a difference of 13.3. Expected was 14.6 yards higher with Jayden Limar than without Jayden Limar. Both night games were without Jayden Limar. Both ranked opponents were without Jayden Limar. All 6 games on a normal week were without Jayden Limar.
Jayden Limar, running back: 58 rushing yards, 14 carries and 1 reception in 2 of those 25 games, 34% of Washington’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games with Jayden Limar is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −18.2 difference in rushing yards over expected with Jayden Limar vs without Jayden Limar is about what you’d expect.
A −13.3 difference in rushing yards with Jayden Limar vs without Jayden Limar is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 74 | 108.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs UCLA | W | 124 | 101.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Oregon | L | 43 | 136.9 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 98 | 130.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 287 | 208.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 324 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Washington State | W | 175 | 113.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 61 | 105.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 118 | 189.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 188 | 219.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 40 | 141.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 166 | 137.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 116 | 113.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 228 | 177.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UCLA | W | 212 | 167.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOregon | L | 154 | 125.7 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 127 | 169.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 137 | 148.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 107 | 85.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 148 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | 40 | 133.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | 116 | 103.6 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | -3 | 101.0 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 188 | 126.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 35 | 100.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jayden Limar nor without Jayden Limar: Jayden Limar had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.