Washington’s points of margin with Xe'ree Alexander and without Xe'ree Alexander
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 0.1 points over with Xe'ree Alexander and 19.3 points over without Xe'ree Alexander over its last 25 games, 18 games against 1. The plain averages are 11.6 and 12.0, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 14.9 points higher with Xe'ree Alexander than without Xe'ree Alexander. All 12 home games were with Xe'ree Alexander. All 6 night games were with Xe'ree Alexander. All 5 ranked opponents were with Xe'ree Alexander.
Xe'ree Alexander, defender: 20 of those 25 games.
One game without Xe'ree Alexander is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Xe'ree Alexander
+0.1
without Xe'ree Alexander
+19.3
-20020
plain
11.6
12.0
0204060
The games
with Xe'ree Alexanderwithout Xe'ree Alexander
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | -29 | -14.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs UCLA | W | 12 | 3.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Oregon | L | -28 | -15.3 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | -1 | -9.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 17 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Washington State | W | 35 | 4.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | -18 | -7.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 4 | 15.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 19 | 16.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | -17 | 3.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 17 | 5.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | -3 | 12.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 36 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UCLA | W | 34 | 11.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOregon | L | -12 | -6.1 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 28 | 10.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 14 | 17.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 2 | 12.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | -3 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | -4 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | -17 | 0.6 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 12 | -7.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 7 | -14.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- UC-Davis, Eastern Washington have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Xe'ree Alexander nor without Xe'ree Alexander: Xe'ree Alexander had no game for the team that season, and sit out.