Washington’s points of margin with Elijah Brown and without Elijah Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 7.7 points over with Elijah Brown and 5.2 points under without Elijah Brown over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.7 and 8.2, a difference of 7.5. Expected was 14.5 points lower with Elijah Brown than without Elijah Brown. Both games while ranked were without Elijah Brown. All 3 nonconference games were without Elijah Brown.
Elijah Brown, quarterback: 714 passing yards, 99 pass attempts and 70 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
3 games with Elijah Brown is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +12.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Elijah Brown vs without Elijah Brown is about what you’d expect.
A −7.5 difference in points of margin with Elijah Brown vs without Elijah Brown is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | -29 | -14.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs UCLA | W | 12 | 3.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Oregon | L | -28 | -15.3 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | -1 | -9.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 17 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Washington State | W | 35 | 4.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | -18 | -7.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 4 | 15.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 19 | 16.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | -17 | 3.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 17 | 5.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | -3 | 12.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 36 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UCLA | W | 34 | 11.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOregon | L | -12 | -6.1 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 28 | 10.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 14 | 17.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 2 | 12.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | -3 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | -4 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | -17 | 0.6 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 12 | -7.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 7 | -14.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Elijah Brown nor without Elijah Brown: Elijah Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.