Washington’s points of margin with Demond Williams Jr. and since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 5.2 points under with Demond Williams Jr. and 7.7 points over since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 8.2 and 0.7, a difference of 7.5. Expected was 14.5 points higher with Demond Williams Jr. than since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game. Both games while ranked were with Demond Williams Jr.. All 3 nonconference games were with Demond Williams Jr.. All 4 first-half games were with Demond Williams Jr..
Demond Williams Jr., quarterback: 1,495 passing yards, 187 pass attempts and 123 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −12.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Demond Williams Jr. vs since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +7.5 difference in points of margin with Demond Williams Jr. vs since Demond Williams Jr.’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 14 | 17.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 2 | 12.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | -3 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | -4 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | -17 | 0.6 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 12 | -7.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 7 | -14.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.