Washington’s points allowed with Jayden Limar and without Jayden Limar
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 15.6 points under with Jayden Limar and 4.2 points over without Jayden Limar in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 10.0 and 24.8, a difference of 14.8. Both night games were without Jayden Limar. Both ranked opponents were without Jayden Limar. All 6 games on a normal week were without Jayden Limar.
Jayden Limar, running back: 58 rushing yards, 14 carries and 1 reception in 2 games this season.
2 games with Jayden Limar is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −19.9 difference in points allowed over expected with Jayden Limar vs without Jayden Limar is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayden Limar and it comes up 16 times in 100.
A −14.8 difference in points allowed with Jayden Limar vs without Jayden Limar is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayden Limar and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 10 | 17.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 14 | 12.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 16 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | 27 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | 25 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 41 | 17.7 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 26 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 10 | 34.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.