Washington’s points allowed with Emmanuel Karnley and without Emmanuel Karnley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 3.2 points under with Emmanuel Karnley and 9.2 points over without Emmanuel Karnley over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 21.0 and 21.5, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 6.4 points higher with Emmanuel Karnley than without Emmanuel Karnley. All 3 away games were with Emmanuel Karnley. Both ranked opponents were with Emmanuel Karnley. Both games while ranked were with Emmanuel Karnley.
Emmanuel Karnley, defender: 5 of those 25 games.
2 games without Emmanuel Karnley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −0.5 difference in points allowed with Emmanuel Karnley vs without Emmanuel Karnley is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 35 | 30.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs UCLA | W | 19 | 19.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Oregon | L | 49 | 32.0 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 35 | 29.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 21 | 10.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Washington State | W | 24 | 17.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 24 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 20 | 18.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 24 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 25 | 23.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 13 | 15.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 13 | 16.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UCLA | W | 14 | 19.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOregon | L | 26 | 31.5 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 10 | 21.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 10 | 17.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 14 | 12.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 16 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | 27 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | 25 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 41 | 17.7 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 26 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 10 | 34.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Emmanuel Karnley nor without Emmanuel Karnley: Emmanuel Karnley had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.