Washington’s passing yards with Elijah Brown and without Elijah Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington was 45.4 yards over with Elijah Brown and 7.9 yards under without Elijah Brown over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 285.7 and 271.4, a difference of 14.3. Both games while ranked were without Elijah Brown. All 3 nonconference games were without Elijah Brown.
Elijah Brown, quarterback: 714 passing yards, 99 pass attempts and 70 completions in 4 of those 25 games, 57% of Washington’s passing yards in those games.
3 games with Elijah Brown is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A +53.4 difference in passing yards over expected with Elijah Brown vs without Elijah Brown is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Elijah Brown and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A +14.3 difference in passing yards with Elijah Brown vs without Elijah Brown is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 119 | 234.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs UCLA | W | 182 | 267.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Oregon | L | 201 | 225.6 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 374 | 252.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 226 | 275.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 304 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Washington State | W | 298 | 207.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 173 | 191.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 275 | 250.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 402 | 240.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 209 | 241.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 292 | 235.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 134 | 252.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 294 | 255.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UCLA | W | 214 | 219.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOregon | L | 129 | 210.4 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 228 | 227.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 268 | 252.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 249 | 258.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 398 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Minnesota | L | 239 | 227.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ USC | L | 203 | 252.5 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 320 | 233.0 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 302 | 243.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 235 | 244.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Eastern Washington has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Elijah Brown nor without Elijah Brown: Elijah Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.