Washington State’s third-down conversion rate with Tony Freeman and without Tony Freeman
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington State was 1.8 percentage points under with Tony Freeman and 5.5 percentage points under without Tony Freeman over its last 25 games, 14 games against 9. The plain averages are 35.8% and 34.4%, a difference of 1.4%. Expected was 2.1 percentage points higher with Tony Freeman than without Tony Freeman. Both neutral-site games were with Tony Freeman. Both games after a bye were with Tony Freeman. Both bowl and playoff games were with Tony Freeman.
Tony Freeman, receiver: 590 receiving yards, 54 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +3.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Tony Freeman vs without Tony Freeman is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Tony Freeman and it comes up 7 times in 100.
A +1.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Tony Freeman vs without Tony Freeman is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Tony Freeman and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Oregon State | L | 28.6% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Wyoming | L | 10.0% | 33.8% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Syracuse (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 37.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs San Diego State | W | 27.8% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ North Texas | L | 57.1% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Washington | L | 46.2% | 38.4% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 41.7% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 20.0% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Virginia | L | 25.0% | 33.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 50.0% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Oregon State | L | 15.4% | 36.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 46.2% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 40.0% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOregon State | W | 42.9% | 34.7% | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Utah State (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @Washington | L | 0.0% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 16.7% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Arizona | L | 33.3% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | 21.4% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @Utah State | L | 26.3% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Oregon State | L | 41.2% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 35.3% | 32.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @San Diego State | L | 64.3% | 36.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Idaho, Duquesne have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 17 of these 25 games; in the other 8 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.