Washington State’s third-down conversion rate with Caden Pinnick and since Caden Pinnick’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington State was 16.6 percentage points under with Caden Pinnick and 12.4 percentage points over since Caden Pinnick’s last game over its last 25 games, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 27.4% and 46.9%, a difference of 19.5%. Both night games were with Caden Pinnick. All 4 nonconference games were with Caden Pinnick.
Caden Pinnick, quarterback: 952 passing yards, 178 pass attempts and 110 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
3 games since Caden Pinnick’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −29.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Caden Pinnick vs since Caden Pinnick’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Caden Pinnick and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A −19.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Caden Pinnick vs since Caden Pinnick’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Oregon State | L | 28.6% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Wyoming | L | 10.0% | 33.8% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Syracuse (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 37.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs San Diego State | W | 27.8% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ North Texas | L | 57.1% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Washington | L | 46.2% | 38.4% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 41.7% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 20.0% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Virginia | L | 25.0% | 33.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 50.0% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Oregon State | L | 15.4% | 36.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 46.2% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 40.0% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOregon State | W | 42.9% | 34.7% | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Utah State (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @Washington | L | 0.0% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 16.7% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Arizona | L | 33.3% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | 21.4% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @Utah State | L | 26.3% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Oregon State | L | 41.2% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 35.3% | 32.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @San Diego State | L | 64.3% | 36.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Duquesne has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Caden Pinnick nor since Caden Pinnick’s last game: Caden Pinnick had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.