Washington State’s third-down conversion rate with Caden Pinnick and since Caden Pinnick’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington State was 16.6 percentage points under with Caden Pinnick and 12.4 percentage points over since Caden Pinnick’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 27.4% and 46.9%, a difference of 19.5%. Both night games were with Caden Pinnick. All 4 nonconference games were with Caden Pinnick. All 4 first-half games were with Caden Pinnick.
Caden Pinnick, quarterback: 952 passing yards, 178 pass attempts and 110 completions in 6 games this season.
3 games since Caden Pinnick’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −29.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Caden Pinnick vs since Caden Pinnick’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Caden Pinnick and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A −19.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Caden Pinnick vs since Caden Pinnick’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Washington | L | 0.0% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 16.7% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Arizona | L | 33.3% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | 21.4% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 26.3% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 41.2% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 35.3% | 32.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 64.3% | 36.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Duquesne has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.